Why does the speaker emphasize silence? So an argument of this sort is probably just a logical mistake, not an explanatory argument. This interlocks with the test, under the preceding improbable-outcome criterion, of asking whether an explanation for the outcome already exists. Sample exercise. A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. Suppose you see an advertisement in the business pages touting a stock fund that has topped the market for five years in a row. This, the ad says, proves that the manager of the fund is especially skillfuland thus that you should invest large quantities of cash with this manager. Newtons theories, for example, while applied here to Halleys comet, actually cover the motion of all objects at all times. b. Such arguments are typical of science, though are not restricted to it. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. b. frustration-aggression theory There are, however, several useful strategies that we will discuss next. He holds it in a stiff and unnatural manner. The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Never have. If the comet had been expected anyway, why should its appearance point toward Newtonian mechanics as opposed to whatever was the already accepted explanation? \end{bmatrix} Look for coincidence as an alternative explanation. Circles that had only later begun to appear elsewhere, they suggested, were created by copycats. e. modeling, c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs, The general aggression model proposes that when aggression occurs, it will be observation - question - hypotheses - predictions - results of investigation - conclusions Which are true of a hypothesis? Higher expectations by teachers and by themselves causes students to perform better. Be more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the explanation was invented after the observable outcome was observed. Similarly with our other cases. I thought somebody must be barbecuing. Resist the temptation, especially when you can see that coincidence has not been ruled out as an alternative explanation. WebQuestion: Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? . These youngsters had, in fact, been selected at random from among their classmates. This applies to both singular and general explanations. Record the facts. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? But this explanation has an exceedingly low prior probability. c. an interaction of situations and personal beliefs In scientific thinking, which of the following are not subject to revision? a. with the intent to harm physically. Muluple Choice Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. B. In 1695, Edmund Halley began to ponder whether Newtons account of celestial mechanics was correct and, in particular, whether it applied to the motion of comets. b. behavior directed toward the goal of harming a person who is motivated to avoid such treatment When an explanations prior probability is extremely low, another alternative explanation is deception. Before experimental drugs can be brought to market, they must undergo many rigorous trials to ensure they deliver their medical benefits effectively and safely. hypothesis? b. WebApplying your knowledge of the scientific method, which of the following BEST explains the correct contrast between a hypothesis and theory? a. immature (It is called double blind because neither those receiving the pills nor those administering the study knows which group is getting the real Vitamin C and which is getting the bogus Vitamin C.) By using large groups, the coincidence alternative is ruled out. d. internal versus external When an explanation already exists, the arguer is free to respond in, for example, the case of the student pilots performance, OK, but this outcome is explained both by the efficacy of punishment and by the normal return to the current mean after an aberrant performance. But now it violates the second part of the total evidence condition as well! A theory has been extensively tested and is generally accepted among a set of scholars; a hypothesis is a speculative guess that has yet to be tested. An experimental design in which neither the subjects nor the experimenters know what treatment (if any) individual subjects are receiving. a. A pathway by which we can come to discover and better understand our world. b. unintentional aggression. C. It's A team of researchers recently found no differences that would account for the beak variations. e. all of the above. Favoring outcomes that rule out alternative explanations is an especially powerful strategy. But it turned out that concrete was available only when mild weather had been predicted. Far worse than the plumber explanation from Dear Abby, it requires a long list of independently improbable things all to be truealternative ways, for example of accounting for the following: the vast documentation rescued from the German Archives; the elaborate sealed rooms set up for funneling the prisoners to their deaths; the movement of enormous quantities of asphyxiating Xyklon B gas to the death camps; the photographs of mounds of bodies; the vast body of eyewitness testimony by both victims and their murderers; and the otherwise mysterious disappearance from history of millions of Jews. You'll get a detailed solution from a subject matter expert that helps you learn core concepts. People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. c. aggressive play is discouraged by coaches and parents First part: The prior probability of the prediction is extremely lowhelped especially by the inclusion of predictions (i.e., no relevant difference in food from island to island) that succeed in falsifying alternative hypotheses (i.e., that the difference is because of difference in food). As with our other inductive arguments, the total evidence condition for logical success has two parts. a. assertive behavior. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. Proponents of the paranormal seized on them as new evidence of visitations from other galaxies; said one Patrick Delgado, author of several profitable books on the subject: No human being could have done this. Further, we have a conceptual framework for Buffets skillthe causal mechanism makes sensefor his strategies have been widely publicized, and the small handful of others who have had the discipline to follow them have also succeeded over the long run. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . b. violence is modeled by young amateur hockey players Sales of vegetarian foods vary by season. The explanation must be sufficiently probable. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. a. physically harming another individual I searched the apartment, but it was nowhere to be found. After a few seconds, I knew it was. Barbecues occur far more frequently than house fires, so they have a much higher prior probability; but when the observable outcomeway too much smokedoes not follow from the barbecue explanation, we are logically forced to the less probable explanation that it is a house fire. It makes no statement with respect to causation. ________ is a perspective within psychology that emphasizes the potential for good that is innate to all humans, proposing a hierarchy of human needs in motivating behavior. Which of the following is an example of an objective measure used by functionalists? The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it has been observed. b. punishing all aggressive play Here is one good way of clarifying it: From a logical point of view, the chronological relationship between the two does not matter. c. Hypotheses usually are relatively narrow in scope; theories have broad explanatory power. In a research study, any condition applied to subjectsthose in the treatment groupthat is not applied to subjects in a control group. Simplicity contributes to epistemic probability, so ask whether the explanation is sufficiently simple. Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. There were 15, then 8, then 4, then 2; then, after the fifth toss, this one student remained. C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. (In the spring of 1983, the topographical feature was officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw). In some cases, it can be tempting to accept an explanation with an extremely low prior probability simply because you cannot think of any plausible alternative. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. b. Women are built for giving birth, and the long haul that involves. , Scientists at the University of Manchester have discovered a distant planet where virtually no one would have expected it to be, orbiting a pulsar star, PSR1829, which was born during a supernova. When was psychology accepted as an academic discipline? But suppose I offer the alternative explanation that air pressure is highly irregular but that it so happens that barometric pressure nevertheless would be 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. Another explanation for the sunrise already exists in our own background evidencethat the earth is rotating on its axis. And it is highly probable that we will have any observation at all. So, an unfalsifiable explanation fails the improbable outcome test. Is the if-clause intended to provide a better causal understanding of the then-clause? e. Raise the level of coaching, with an emphasis on fair play, especially with younger athletes. Suppose, for example, that on a camping trip to the mountains you say to your friend, This pot of water boiled quickly at this altitude; so all water boils quickly at this altitude. The premise and conclusion are both about the boiling of water at this altitude. Which of the following is NOT one of the four most prominent theories of aggression? Conduct a critical experiment. This can be a useful standard, but remember that surprise is a psychological conditionthus, strictly speaking, it is an indicator of low subjective, rather than epistemic, probability. e. reactive-instrumental aggression theory. P.S. It includes the presumption of causation. Clarify the explanatory argument in each of the following passages. Psychologists scientifically study ________. A set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to further the understanding of numerical data. Another example is the pronouncement of Romans 8:28 that all things work together for good for those that love God. Some Christians will take any outcome at all to be, in some sense or other, good and thus to be evidence for the truth of this saying. Franklin D. 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which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis